Status of Putting People in Space in 2021
Since the MASS group has created a contest to guess the number of people that go into space (using the US Air Force definition of 50 mile height) in 2021, I thought I'd blog about the status of each of the world's effort on a monthly basis.
MASS member guesses range from: Beth 63, Carol 50, Harry 54, Keith 42, Dean 40, Phil 36, Hank 32, Me 27, Ed 20 and Silvio 6.
As of March 6, 2021, no one has yet launched in 2021. It's been a year of delays so far, but I hope the year finishes strong. My guess in the text below results in a count of 29, so I guess I'm becoming more optimistic. I originally thought China would launch 3 but now its zero but I think Virgin Galactic will launch 6, originally I thought 3 and I think Blue Origin will launch 2, originally I thought zero.
The United States will probably put the most people in space and they could come from these sources:
- Crew Dragon - SpaceX has already launched 2 capsules with people. Another mission, CREW2, is planned for NASA with 4 people on April 20. CREW3 with another 4 people is set for the Fall of 2021. SpaceX also has a totally civilian mission, Inspiration4, purchased by billionaire Jared Issacman with 4 people, scheduled for the 4th quarter of 2021. The other private flight using Dragon was purchased by Axiom Space and is scheduled to fly with 4 people in January of 2022. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12.
- Starliner - Boeing's manned capsule has still to do an unmanned test called OFT-2 before it will be rated for people. OFT-2 was scheduled for April 2, 2021 but the cold snap in Texas and the subsequent power failures have set back the software testing for over a week. Because the Starliner is scheduled to dock with the ISS and the ISS will be a busy place with Soyuz and Dragon docking during April, OFT-2 will probably be delayed to May or later. ULA who handles the Atlas V rocket that launches Starliner, has 3 military launches scheduled for May to August and I'm not sure when they will shoe-horn OFT-2 in. Currently the first manned flight, BOE-CFT with a crew of 3, is scheduled for September of 2021. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on Starliner is 3.
- Orion - NASA's capsule that will fly manned on the SLS rocket during the Artemis 2 mission. But it is still waiting for the initial SLS unmanned flight of Artemis 1. Artemis 1 is scheduled for November of 2021. But the core stage of the SLS rocket is still at the Stennis testing site awaiting a second "green run" test firing. The second "green run" test firing was scheduled for February 25 before a problem with a liquid oxygen valve was discovered. No date has been announced for the second "green run" test firing. After the firing, the core stage will to be shipped to Florida for integration of the full SLS rocket and unmanned Orion capsule. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on Orion is 0.
- SpaceShipTwo - Virgin Galactic's suborbital spacecraft, dropped from the carrier plane WhiteKnightTwo, has flown twice with test pilots and employees. The 6 minute flight originates and lands on an airstrip at the Mojave Air & Spaceport in New Mexico. They were scheduled to fly February 13, 2021 with 2 test pilots but trouble with the electronics has delayed the flight to May 2021. SpaceShipTwo is capable of carrying 6 passengers and 2 pilots. I think they'll fly twice in 2021 with the second flight carrying some employees again. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on SpaceShipTwo is 6.
- New Shepard - from Blue Origin, the space company of Amazon's Jeff Bezos, is a suborbital capsule that has flown 14 times from the Corn Ranch in West Texas. All flights have been unmanned but the capsule can carry 7 paying tourists on an 11 minute suborbital flight and parachute landing. A fifteenth unmanned test flight was expected in late February but it has not materialized. Plans were to carry the first crew 6 weeks after that. My guess is that they will fly with people once in 2021. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on New Shepard is 2.
China has also launched people into space using its Shenzhou capsule based on the Soyuz design. The last flight launched on October 16, 2016 with 2 taikonauts. Shenzhou can carry up to 3 people. China plans to start building another space station, starting with the Tianhe core module, in 2021. They anticipate 4 crewed launches in support of the station by 2023. China is also developing a larger capsule that can carry up to 6 people and launch on a Long March 5B rocket. So far no launch date has been announced. I think the moon rover, Mars rover and space station launches will keep China busy in 2021. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on Shenzhou is 0.
India plans to develop a manned space capsule called Gaganyaan. The capsule will be able to carry 3 people. The first unmanned flight was planned for December 2021. The first manned flight is planned for 2022. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.
