April Update before MASS meeting of People in Space in 2021

Early update in April to show at the MASS meeting. Anticipating that SpaceX will launch CREW2 tomorrow morning, April 23. That will bring the 2021 count up to 7 because the 4 on Dragon will join the 3 people launches on Soyuz April 9.

Here are the updates on manned space programs since my last blog.

For the 5 spacecraft from the United States:

Crew Dragon - CREW2 will launch on the morning of April 23. The only delay might be for weather in the abort zones. That will be SpaceX's third manned flight. CREW3 is not scheduled for no-earlier-than October 23, 2021. 4 already launched and Inspiration4 and CREW3 should add another 8. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12.

Starliner - Due to the lack of availability at the ISS with docking ports and conflicts with other Atlas 5 launches for DoD, OFT-2, the redo of the unmanned test mission has been delayed to August-September of 2021. The CFT mission with crew is probably delayed to February of 2022. I'm lowering my guess for Starliner to zero from 3. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Starliner is 0.

Orion - The core stage for the unmanned Artemis 1 should be sailing to KSC after the successful "Green Run" test. Artemis 1 might happen in 2021 but no manned mission will occur this year. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Orion is 0.

SpaceShip - No change on Virgin Galactic time line. New VSS Imagine can handle 6 passengers plus 2 pilots which in more than the original VSS Unity which can handle only 4 passengers. But I'm keeping my guess the same because the early flights might not fill the load capacity. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on SpaceShip is 6.

New Shepard - Blue Origin flew their 15th unmanned mission on April 14. It was a success but no word on when they will carry people. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on New Shepard is 2.

Russia successfully launch 3 people on Soyuz MS-18 on April 9. No change on Russian estimate. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Soyuz is 6.

China says they will launch Shenzhou 12 in June possibly with a crew of 3. The first module of their space station is scheduled to be launched at the end of April. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Shenzhou is 6.

India has no updates. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.

My current estimate for 2021 is now down to 32 people. A decrease of 3 from last month's estimate. The decrease is due to Starliner which I think will fly zero rather than 3 in 2021.

March Update of Putting People in Space in 2021

 Here it is April and no one has yet launched into space during 2021. That is 3 months or 1/4th of the year gone by. But April should see some launches. The Russians plan to launch Soyuz with 3 people on April 9th and NASA will launch 4 people on the CREW2 Dragon on April 22nd.

Here are the updates that occurred since my last blog.

For the 5 spacecraft from the United States:

Crew Dragon - CREW2 is scheduled for launch to ISS on April 22. The first private Dragon launch, Inspiration4, is set for no-earlier than September 15 and the CREW3 mission is targeted also for September. The Inspiration4 mission will be pretty cool. The 3 day mission will not dock with ISS but will travel in a higher orbit at 335 miles (ISS is at 250 miles) and SpaceX plans to add a new large viewing window at the top of the Dragon capsule rather than the ISS docking assembly. Three missions of 4 people. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12.

Starliner - Because of the busy ISS schedule, Boeing's second unmanned mission to the ISS, OFT-2, has been delayed to mid-May. Their test mission with a crew of 3, CFT, is still scheduled for September. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Starliner is 3.

Orion - Although NASA had a good "Green Run" test firing on March 18, an unmanned test launch of Orion may be delayed to 2022. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Orion is 0.

SpaceShipTwo - Virgin Galactic just announced the completion of their second active suborbital spacecraft, VSS Imagine. It joins VSS Unity in the fleet. Unity is scheduled to make a test flight in May probably with 2 test pilots as soon as electromagnetic interference issues are remedied. Imagine has its first flight planned for this Summer. I'm assuming that it would carry a crew of 4 or more. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on SpaceShipTwo is 6.

New Shepard - Blue Origin is their usual self, meaning that they haven't had any recent news. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on New Shepard is 2.

Russia will launch Soyuz MS-18 on April 9th with one American, Mark Vande Hei, and 2 cosmonauts. Their Soyuz MS-19 is scheduled for September 22nd with a cosmonaut and 2 Russian tourists, a Russian actress and her film director. The night of April 12th will be "Yuri's Night" an annual celebration of Yuri Gagarin's first manned flight. This year will be the 60th anniversary. Victor Glover, the only rookie on the CREW1 mission, was the 582nd person to travel into space since 1961. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Soyuz is 6.

China is set to launch in April their first module, Tianhe, of their new space station. After some supply missions, China said they will be launching a manned Shenzhou 12 capsule to the station by mid-year. Details are sketchy, but in the past they have put 2 or 3 taikonauts in past capsules. On March 4th, ABC News said China is planning 4 manned missions to their space station this year. 12 people were training for these missions. That sounds a little too ambitious, but I am upping my guess to 6 from 0.  Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Shenzhou 6.

India had 4 astronauts return from a year of training in Russia. Their plan is still an unmanned test of the new Ganganyaan capsule this year and a manned launch in 2022. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.

My current estimate for 2021 is now up to 35 people. An increase of 6 over last month's estimate. The extra 6 all came from the China estimate.