The busy month of October has come and gone. The Russians launched their Soyuz on October 5 with 3 people including an actress for a 12 day movie making stay on the ISS. The Chinese launched their crew of 3 up the Tiangong space station on October 15. Blue Origin slipped in another sub-orbital flight with 4 people including William Shatner on October 13. The US Dragon flight, CREW3, slipped from October 31 to November 10 due to bad weather and a minor medical issue with one of the crew. But Dragon finally launched with 4 people to the ISS.
These 14 additional people (10 in October and 4 in November) bring the current yearly count to 40. That is right on Dean's guess for the year.
Virgin Galactic has shut down their sub-orbital operation, SpaceShip, for maintenance and will not fly their next mission with the Italian Air Force personnel until well into 2022.
My crystal ball for the rest of 2021 is getting clearer. The only published launch remaining is the Russian launch of another Soyuz on December 8. It will carry 3 people, including 1 cosmonaut and 2 Japanese tourists. One of the tourists is helping Elon Musk fund the development of the new StarShip vehicle and has purchased a trip around the moon in it. I guess he can't wait the few years for that trip, so he has also purchased a ride on Soyuz for a 12 day stay on the ISS in the short term.
The Soyuz launch will push the count to 43 for the year. That would be only 1 greater than Keith's guess of 42, making him the winner of the MASS Prize.
The only "dark horse" is that Blue Origin has said they plan one more sub-orbital flight in 2021 with New Shepard. They said this time the will have a crew of 6. If that flight occurs, it would bump the count to 49. That would make Carol's guess of 50 the winner. It is hard to use a promise from Blue Origin to make her the favorite, only time will tell. Good luck to all.
The final 2021 count will either be 43 or 49. Blue Origin is so tight-lipped with their launches, we'll never know until a week before it will occurs. The tension is palpable.