Thursday, April 22, 2021

April Update before MASS meeting of People in Space in 2021

Early update in April to show at the MASS meeting. Anticipating that SpaceX will launch CREW2 tomorrow morning, April 23. That will bring the 2021 count up to 7 because the 4 on Dragon will join the 3 people launches on Soyuz April 9.

Here are the updates on manned space programs since my last blog.

For the 5 spacecraft from the United States:

Crew Dragon - CREW2 will launch on the morning of April 23. The only delay might be for weather in the abort zones. That will be SpaceX's third manned flight. CREW3 is not scheduled for no-earlier-than October 23, 2021. 4 already launched and Inspiration4 and CREW3 should add another 8. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12.

Starliner - Due to the lack of availability at the ISS with docking ports and conflicts with other Atlas 5 launches for DoD, OFT-2, the redo of the unmanned test mission has been delayed to August-September of 2021. The CFT mission with crew is probably delayed to February of 2022. I'm lowering my guess for Starliner to zero from 3. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Starliner is 0.

Orion - The core stage for the unmanned Artemis 1 should be sailing to KSC after the successful "Green Run" test. Artemis 1 might happen in 2021 but no manned mission will occur this year. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Orion is 0.

SpaceShip - No change on Virgin Galactic time line. New VSS Imagine can handle 6 passengers plus 2 pilots which in more than the original VSS Unity which can handle only 4 passengers. But I'm keeping my guess the same because the early flights might not fill the load capacity. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on SpaceShip is 6.

New Shepard - Blue Origin flew their 15th unmanned mission on April 14. It was a success but no word on when they will carry people. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on New Shepard is 2.

Russia successfully launch 3 people on Soyuz MS-18 on April 9. No change on Russian estimate. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Soyuz is 6.

China says they will launch Shenzhou 12 in June possibly with a crew of 3. The first module of their space station is scheduled to be launched at the end of April. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Shenzhou is 6.

India has no updates. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.

My current estimate for 2021 is now down to 32 people. A decrease of 3 from last month's estimate. The decrease is due to Starliner which I think will fly zero rather than 3 in 2021.

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