Friday, September 3, 2021

End of August Update

Number of people who have flown into space during 2021 is holding at 22.

Chronological list of upcoming manned flights with announced dates is:

9/15/21    US - Crew Dragon Inspiration4 with 4 people

10/5/21    Russia - Soyuz MS-19 with 3 people

10/31/21   US - Crew Dragon CREW3 with 4 people

12/8/21    Russia - Soyuz MS-20 with 3 people

For the 5 spacecraft from the United States:

Crew Dragon - No change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12. 4 have already gone into space.

Starliner - With the failed launch attempt on August 16, there definitely will not be a crewed mission in 2021. During the count down 13 of Starliner's attitude control valves were stuck closed. Investigation found that they were corroded. The un-crewed mission is on hold until the root cause is determined. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Starliner is 0.

Orion - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Orion is 0.

SpaceShip - The FAA is investigating why the first flight varied from its anticipated path. Virgin Galactic cannot fly again until the investigation is closed. Maybe VG is done for the year. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on SpaceShip is 8. 8 have already gone into space.

New Shepard - It was a surprise that Blue Origin flew again on August 25, but with no people. I'm reducing future people to just 4 on 1 flight in 2021. Blue Origin continues to underwhelm me. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on New Shepard is 8, a reduction of 6. 4 have already gone into space.

For Russia - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Soyuz is 9. 3 have already gone into space.

For China - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Shenzhou is 6. 3 have already gone into space.

For India - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.

My current estimate for 2021 is now down 6 to 43 since the last estimate. The reduction is due to only 1 possible future flight from Blue Origin on the New Shepard.

22 have flown into space and 21 more are still anticipated, 8 from SpaceX, 4 from Blue Origin, 6 from Russia and 3 from China.

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