Blog for Sunday, April 30, 2023

I’m going to try blogging weekly to share recent events with you. Any feedback is appreciated.

Falcon Heavy launches for 6^th time -- Today, April 30, SpaceX, after much delay, launched a massive communication satellite to geostationary orbit. Part of the delay was that the rocket was hit by lightning as it sat on the pad a couple of days ago. The rest of the delay was due to bad weather. The mission needed so much rocket performance that all 3 cores of the rocket were expended with no landings attempted. SpaceX has still never successfully landed a center core from a Falcon Heavy launch.

Astronomy Day at Harper College – Don and I traveled to the college Saturday night, April 29, for an interesting set of talks and displays. First up, was Kevin Cole, the organizer of the event and astronomer at Harper, who talked about Mars quakes, the Mars rovers and the planet Venus. Next, was Dean talking about NASA’s Artemis program that intends to return humans to the lunar surface. He stated that the transporter-crawler that moves the rocket from the VAB to the launchpad has set the record for the heaviest self-powered vehicle at 6.65 million pounds. It also gets a whopping 150 gallons per mile in fuel efficiency. Lastly, we listened to Jim Kovac talk about extreme exoplanets. There are some really weird ones out there, including “hot Jupiters” and the most common exoplanet, “super Earths”. It was nice to bump into Keith at the event. He joined us for the first two lectures and documented the event with some great selfies. I also said “hi” to Joe DalSanto, astronomer from COD, who attended the event.

JUICE mission has problem with antenna deployment – The probe’s large antenna has deployed only 1/3 its intended length. Scientists think a small pin is protruding only a couple of millimeters and preventing the full extension. The antenna will be needed for the probe to gather information from its ice penetrating radar instrument. We still have time to use thermal expansion and jolts from its thrusters to solve the problem, because the probe will take 7 years and many gravity-assists from Earth and Venus before it arrives at Jupiter in April 2030.

NASA keeping Voyager 2 going until 2026 – Scientists shut down a voltage regulator on the probe freeing more power to keep all the science instruments operating. The Voyagers were launched in 1977. Voyager 2 is 12.3 billion miles from Earth and Voyager 1 is 14.7 billion miles distant.

The Hakuto-R private company lunar lander failed – The Japanese company iSpace said that telemetry from the probe indicated that it ran out of fuel and sped up as approached the lunar surface. That makes for the second private company that failed trying to land on the Moon. An Israeli company, SpaceIL, failed with their Beresheet lander April 11, 2019, spreading some tardigrades on the surface.

Damage from the Starship launch – Bill Nelson, NASA Administrator, feels SpaceX could try again in just a couple of months. Others think that it will take to the end of 2023 to repair the launch pad. Elon Musk was on the Bill Maher Show Friday, April 28, talking about free speech and artificial intelligence. Maher is a big fan of Musk. Elon came across as more human than usual and a genuine thoughtful person. That’s much different than the recent coverage from his takeover of Twitter. SpaceX is said to be spending $2 billion of its money on Starship development in 2023.

Virgin Galactic performed a glide test of their VSS Unity Space Plane – On April 26, they dropped it from a height of 14 km for an unpowered landing in New Mexico. Next flight will be powered and have 2 pilots and 4 employees aboard. If that goes well, VG is prepared to commence commercial service in the second quarter of 2023 with Italian Air Force personnel and expects to fly once a month.

SpaceX getting 2^nd launch pad at Vandenberg Air Force Base – With this addition, SpaceX will have 2 launch pads in California to go with their 2 launch pads in Florida and 1 in Texas.

December Update

December has been an active month. We started out with 40 people in space and Dean in the lead since November 10 with his guess of 40. That changed to 43 when Soyuz launched on December 8, putting Keith in the lead with his guess of 42. Then after a 2 day delay due to high winds in West Texas, Blue Origin launched 6 people in their New Shepard capsule today, December 11, bringing the year's count to 49. Carol, with her guess of 50, is now in the "driver's seat" for the 2021 MASS Prize. Twenty days to go in the year and no more launches anticipated. Carol says that if she wins, there will be a Dilly-Bar for every MASS meeting attendee. Availability will be determined by the opening of the Villa Park DQ store in the Spring.

It was fun tracking the people in space this year. The two new sub-orbital launch companies, Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin, made the count go up considerably. Blue Origin put more people in space than anyone else with their total of 14 on 3 launches. Virgin Galactic contributed 8 on their 2 launches. That makes 22 of the 49 people in space this year sub-orbital rides. Orbital people rode on the SpaceX Dragon (12), Russia's Soyuz (9) and China's Shenzhou (6).

Now we have to get some people flying on Boeing's Starliner capsule and NASA's Orion capsule for the United States and some Indian astronauts on the Gaganyaan capsule. All three of those first manned flights probably won't occur until 2023.

According to the SuperCluster.com website, there has been 612 people who have flown in space. During the brief 10 minute Blue Origin mission on December 11, we set a record of 19 people simultaneously in space. The ISS had 10, the Chinese Tiangong had 3 and the New Shepard capsule had 6.

Thanks to all that participated in the MASS Prize. We'll have to put our heads together to figure what the next Prize will be. Feel free to contact me with your ideas.

October-November Update

 The busy month of October has come and gone. The Russians launched their Soyuz on October 5 with 3 people including an actress for a 12 day movie making stay on the ISS. The Chinese launched their crew of 3 up the Tiangong space station on October 15. Blue Origin slipped in another sub-orbital flight with 4 people including William Shatner on October 13. The US Dragon flight, CREW3, slipped from October 31 to November 10 due to bad weather and a minor medical issue with one of the crew. But Dragon finally launched with 4 people to the ISS.

These 14 additional people (10 in October and 4 in November) bring the current yearly count to 40. That is right on Dean's guess for the year.

Virgin Galactic has shut down their sub-orbital operation, SpaceShip, for maintenance and will not fly their next mission with the Italian Air Force personnel until well into 2022.

My crystal ball for the rest of 2021 is getting clearer. The only published launch remaining is the Russian launch of another Soyuz on December 8. It will carry 3 people, including 1 cosmonaut and 2 Japanese tourists. One of the tourists is helping Elon Musk fund the development of the new StarShip vehicle and has purchased a trip around the moon in it. I guess he can't wait the few years for that trip, so he has also purchased a ride on Soyuz for a 12 day stay on the ISS in the short term.

The Soyuz launch will push the count to 43 for the year. That would be only 1 greater than Keith's guess of 42, making him the winner of the MASS Prize.

The only "dark horse" is that Blue Origin has said they plan one more sub-orbital flight in 2021 with New Shepard. They said this time the will have a crew of 6. If that flight occurs, it would bump the count to 49. That would make Carol's guess of 50 the winner. It is hard to use a promise from Blue Origin to make her the favorite, only time will tell. Good luck to all.

The final 2021 count will either be 43 or 49. Blue Origin is so tight-lipped with their launches, we'll never know until a week before it will occurs. The tension is palpable. 

September Update

 With the Inspiration 4 mission from SpaceX launching on September 15 , the number of people who have flown into space during 2021 is up to 26.

Upcoming flights include:

• on October 5 - the Russian Soyuz MS-19 with 3 people
• on October 16 - the Chinese Shenzhou 13 mission with 3 people
• on October 31 - the US CREW3 Dragon with 4 people
• on December 8 - the Russian Soyuz MS-20 with 3 people 

Virgin Galactic has also said that they plan a suborbital flight with members of the Italian Air Force no-earlier than mid-October, once they resolve a potential manufacturing issue with a part in their flight control system of the SpaceShip vehicle. The number of people on the flight is unspecified but SpaceShip can accommodate 6 passengers with 2 pilots.

My guess for future people going into space during 2021 is a firm 13 and possibly 6 more from Virgin Galactic. That makes a total of 19 more added to the 26 already going into space for a yearly total of 45.

That guess of 45 is 2 higher than my last estimate. The increase is due to dropping Blue Origin flying anyone (-4) but Virgin Galactic still planning a flight in 2021 (+6).

End of August Update

Number of people who have flown into space during 2021 is holding at 22.

Chronological list of upcoming manned flights with announced dates is:

9/15/21    US - Crew Dragon Inspiration4 with 4 people

10/5/21    Russia - Soyuz MS-19 with 3 people

10/31/21   US - Crew Dragon CREW3 with 4 people

12/8/21    Russia - Soyuz MS-20 with 3 people

For the 5 spacecraft from the United States:

Crew Dragon - No change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12. 4 have already gone into space.

Starliner - With the failed launch attempt on August 16, there definitely will not be a crewed mission in 2021. During the count down 13 of Starliner's attitude control valves were stuck closed. Investigation found that they were corroded. The un-crewed mission is on hold until the root cause is determined. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Starliner is 0.

Orion - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Orion is 0.

SpaceShip - The FAA is investigating why the first flight varied from its anticipated path. Virgin Galactic cannot fly again until the investigation is closed. Maybe VG is done for the year. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on SpaceShip is 8. 8 have already gone into space.

New Shepard - It was a surprise that Blue Origin flew again on August 25, but with no people. I'm reducing future people to just 4 on 1 flight in 2021. Blue Origin continues to underwhelm me. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on New Shepard is 8, a reduction of 6. 4 have already gone into space.

For Russia - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Soyuz is 9. 3 have already gone into space.

For China - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Shenzhou is 6. 3 have already gone into space.

For India - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.

My current estimate for 2021 is now down 6 to 43 since the last estimate. The reduction is due to only 1 possible future flight from Blue Origin on the New Shepard.

22 have flown into space and 21 more are still anticipated, 8 from SpaceX, 4 from Blue Origin, 6 from Russia and 3 from China.

End of July Update

22 have already gone into space.

Chronological list of upcoming manned flights with announced dates is:

9/15/21    US - Crew Dragon Inspiration4 with 4 people

10/5/21    Russia - Soyuz MS-19 with 3 people

10/31/21   US - Crew Dragon CREW3 with 4 people

12/8/21    Russia - Soyuz MS-20 with 3 people

For the 5 spacecraft from the United States:

Crew Dragon - No change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12. 4 have already gone into space.

Starliner - No change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Starliner is 0.

Orion - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Orion is 0.

SpaceShip - Richard Branson along with 5 fellow employees flew their first crewed mission on July 11. No date set for future missions. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on SpaceShip is 8. 8 have already gone into space.

New Shepard - Jeff Bezos flew with 3 people on July 20. During the flight they set the records for the oldest, 82 and youngest, 18, person to go into space. Blue Origin said they plan two more flights for 2021 with depending on the crew size would be 8 to 12 more people. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on New Shepard is 14, an increase of 10 due to additional flights. 4 have already gone into space.

For Russia - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Soyuz is 9. 3 have already gone into space.

For China - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Shenzhou is 6. 3 have already gone into space.

For India - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.

My current estimate for 2021 is now up 10 to 49 since the last estimate. The increase is due to only 2 additional flights from Blue Origin on the New Shepard.

End of June Update

Chronological list of upcoming manned flights with announced dates is:

7/20/21    US - New Shepard with 4 people

9/15/21    US - Crew Dragon Inspiration4 with 4 people

10/5/21    Russia - Soyuz MS-19 with 3 people

10/31/21   US - Crew Dragon CREW3 with 4 people

12/8/21    Russia - Soyuz MS-20 with 3 people

For the 5 spacecraft from the United States:

Crew Dragon - The launch of the CREW3 mission has been delayed a week until Oct 31. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12.

Starliner - only change is that Boeing is no ruling out a crewed test flight before the end of 2021. The uncrewed test flight is still scheduled for July 30. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Starliner is 0.

Orion - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Orion is 0.

SpaceShip - There is talk that Richard Branson might try to fly on the next mission during the Fourth of July holiday, so that he can beat Jeff Bezos into space, but there is no announced flight date. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on SpaceShip is 8.

New Shepard - The crew for the inaugural July 20th manned flight has been reduced from 6 to 4. It will include Jeff Bezos, his younger brother, Mark, Wally Funk, the lady that was one of the unofficial Mercury 13 female astronauts and finally the winner at $28 million of the auctioned seat. Funk at age 83 will be the older person to fly into space, beating John Glenn's record of 77 when he flew in 1998 on the Shuttle. 120,000 people have signed a petition that if Bezos goes into space, he should not return to Earth. These people are uninformed because it is a sub-orbital mission. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on New Shepard is 4, a decrease of 2 due to the smaller crew on the first mission.

For Russia - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Soyuz is 9.

For China - on June 16 the Shenzhou 12 capsule launched into space with a crew of 3. It successfully docked with the new Chinese space station for a 3 month stay. Shenzhou 12 brings the total to 12 for people going into space for 2021. Shenzhou 13, with another crew of 3, is planned for October 2021. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Shenzhou is 6.

For India - no change. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.

My current estimate for 2021 is now down to 39 and decrease of 2 since the last estimate. The decrease is due to only 4 people flying on the first manned New Shepard capsule, not the full compliment of 6.