April Update before MASS meeting of People in Space in 2021

Early update in April to show at the MASS meeting. Anticipating that SpaceX will launch CREW2 tomorrow morning, April 23. That will bring the 2021 count up to 7 because the 4 on Dragon will join the 3 people launches on Soyuz April 9.

Here are the updates on manned space programs since my last blog.

For the 5 spacecraft from the United States:

Crew Dragon - CREW2 will launch on the morning of April 23. The only delay might be for weather in the abort zones. That will be SpaceX's third manned flight. CREW3 is not scheduled for no-earlier-than October 23, 2021. 4 already launched and Inspiration4 and CREW3 should add another 8. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12.

Starliner - Due to the lack of availability at the ISS with docking ports and conflicts with other Atlas 5 launches for DoD, OFT-2, the redo of the unmanned test mission has been delayed to August-September of 2021. The CFT mission with crew is probably delayed to February of 2022. I'm lowering my guess for Starliner to zero from 3. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Starliner is 0.

Orion - The core stage for the unmanned Artemis 1 should be sailing to KSC after the successful "Green Run" test. Artemis 1 might happen in 2021 but no manned mission will occur this year. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Orion is 0.

SpaceShip - No change on Virgin Galactic time line. New VSS Imagine can handle 6 passengers plus 2 pilots which in more than the original VSS Unity which can handle only 4 passengers. But I'm keeping my guess the same because the early flights might not fill the load capacity. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on SpaceShip is 6.

New Shepard - Blue Origin flew their 15th unmanned mission on April 14. It was a success but no word on when they will carry people. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on New Shepard is 2.

Russia successfully launch 3 people on Soyuz MS-18 on April 9. No change on Russian estimate. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Soyuz is 6.

China says they will launch Shenzhou 12 in June possibly with a crew of 3. The first module of their space station is scheduled to be launched at the end of April. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Shenzhou is 6.

India has no updates. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.

My current estimate for 2021 is now down to 32 people. A decrease of 3 from last month's estimate. The decrease is due to Starliner which I think will fly zero rather than 3 in 2021.

March Update of Putting People in Space in 2021

 Here it is April and no one has yet launched into space during 2021. That is 3 months or 1/4th of the year gone by. But April should see some launches. The Russians plan to launch Soyuz with 3 people on April 9th and NASA will launch 4 people on the CREW2 Dragon on April 22nd.

Here are the updates that occurred since my last blog.

For the 5 spacecraft from the United States:

Crew Dragon - CREW2 is scheduled for launch to ISS on April 22. The first private Dragon launch, Inspiration4, is set for no-earlier than September 15 and the CREW3 mission is targeted also for September. The Inspiration4 mission will be pretty cool. The 3 day mission will not dock with ISS but will travel in a higher orbit at 335 miles (ISS is at 250 miles) and SpaceX plans to add a new large viewing window at the top of the Dragon capsule rather than the ISS docking assembly. Three missions of 4 people. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12.

Starliner - Because of the busy ISS schedule, Boeing's second unmanned mission to the ISS, OFT-2, has been delayed to mid-May. Their test mission with a crew of 3, CFT, is still scheduled for September. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Starliner is 3.

Orion - Although NASA had a good "Green Run" test firing on March 18, an unmanned test launch of Orion may be delayed to 2022. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Orion is 0.

SpaceShipTwo - Virgin Galactic just announced the completion of their second active suborbital spacecraft, VSS Imagine. It joins VSS Unity in the fleet. Unity is scheduled to make a test flight in May probably with 2 test pilots as soon as electromagnetic interference issues are remedied. Imagine has its first flight planned for this Summer. I'm assuming that it would carry a crew of 4 or more. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on SpaceShipTwo is 6.

New Shepard - Blue Origin is their usual self, meaning that they haven't had any recent news. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on New Shepard is 2.

Russia will launch Soyuz MS-18 on April 9th with one American, Mark Vande Hei, and 2 cosmonauts. Their Soyuz MS-19 is scheduled for September 22nd with a cosmonaut and 2 Russian tourists, a Russian actress and her film director. The night of April 12th will be "Yuri's Night" an annual celebration of Yuri Gagarin's first manned flight. This year will be the 60th anniversary. Victor Glover, the only rookie on the CREW1 mission, was the 582nd person to travel into space since 1961. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Soyuz is 6.

China is set to launch in April their first module, Tianhe, of their new space station. After some supply missions, China said they will be launching a manned Shenzhou 12 capsule to the station by mid-year. Details are sketchy, but in the past they have put 2 or 3 taikonauts in past capsules. On March 4th, ABC News said China is planning 4 manned missions to their space station this year. 12 people were training for these missions. That sounds a little too ambitious, but I am upping my guess to 6 from 0.  Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Shenzhou 6.

India had 4 astronauts return from a year of training in Russia. Their plan is still an unmanned test of the new Ganganyaan capsule this year and a manned launch in 2022. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.

My current estimate for 2021 is now up to 35 people. An increase of 6 over last month's estimate. The extra 6 all came from the China estimate.

 Status of Putting People in Space in 2021

Since the MASS group has created a contest to guess the number of people that go into space (using the US Air Force definition of 50 mile height) in 2021, I thought I'd blog about the status of each of the world's effort on a monthly basis.

MASS member guesses range from: Beth 63, Carol 50, Harry 54, Keith 42, Dean 40, Phil 36, Hank 32, Me 27, Ed 20 and Silvio 6.

As of March 6, 2021, no one has yet launched in 2021. It's been a year of delays so far, but I hope the year finishes strong. My guess in the text below results in a count of 29, so I guess I'm becoming more optimistic. I originally thought China would launch 3 but now its zero but I think Virgin Galactic will launch 6, originally I thought 3 and I think Blue Origin will launch 2, originally I thought zero.

The United States will probably put the most people in space and they could come from these sources:

• Crew Dragon - SpaceX has already launched 2 capsules with people. Another mission, CREW2, is planned for NASA with 4 people on April 20. CREW3 with another 4 people is set for the Fall of 2021. SpaceX also has a totally civilian mission, Inspiration4, purchased by billionaire Jared Issacman with 4 people, scheduled for the 4th quarter of 2021. The other private flight using Dragon was purchased by Axiom Space and is scheduled to fly with 4 people in January of 2022. Anticipated people to fly to space in 2021 on Dragon is 12.
• Starliner - Boeing's manned capsule has still to do an unmanned test called OFT-2 before it will be rated for people. OFT-2 was scheduled for April 2, 2021 but the cold snap in Texas and the subsequent power failures have set back the software testing for over a week. Because the Starliner is scheduled to dock with the ISS and the ISS will be a busy place with Soyuz and Dragon docking during April, OFT-2 will probably be delayed to May or later. ULA who handles the Atlas V rocket that launches Starliner, has 3 military launches scheduled for May to August and I'm not sure when they will shoe-horn OFT-2 in. Currently the first manned flight, BOE-CFT with a crew of 3, is scheduled for September of 2021. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on Starliner is 3.
• Orion - NASA's capsule that will fly manned on the SLS rocket during the Artemis 2 mission. But it is still waiting for the initial SLS unmanned flight of Artemis 1. Artemis 1 is scheduled for November of 2021. But the core stage of the SLS rocket is still at the Stennis testing site awaiting a second "green run" test firing. The second "green run" test firing was scheduled for February 25 before a problem with a liquid oxygen valve was discovered. No date has been announced for the second "green run" test firing. After the firing, the core stage will to be shipped to Florida for integration of the full SLS rocket and unmanned Orion capsule. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on Orion is 0.
• SpaceShipTwo - Virgin Galactic's suborbital spacecraft, dropped from the carrier plane WhiteKnightTwo, has flown twice with test pilots and employees. The 6 minute flight originates and lands on an airstrip at the Mojave Air & Spaceport in New Mexico. They were scheduled to fly February 13, 2021 with 2 test pilots but trouble with the electronics has delayed the flight to May 2021. SpaceShipTwo is capable of carrying 6 passengers and 2 pilots. I think they'll fly twice in 2021 with the second flight carrying some employees again. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on SpaceShipTwo is 6.
• New Shepard - from Blue Origin, the space company of Amazon's Jeff Bezos, is a suborbital capsule that has flown 14 times from the Corn Ranch in West Texas. All flights have been unmanned but the capsule can carry 7 paying tourists on an 11 minute suborbital flight and parachute landing. A fifteenth unmanned test flight was expected in late February but it has not materialized. Plans were to carry the first crew 6 weeks after that. My guess is that they will fly with people once in 2021. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on New Shepard is 2.

Russia has been flying people on its Soyuz capsule reliably for 50+ years. The capsule can hold 3 people and they typically fly 2 missions a year to the ISS. Soyuz 64S is scheduled for April 10 and Soyuz 65S is set for September 22. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on Soyuz is 6.

China has also launched people into space using its Shenzhou capsule based on the Soyuz design. The last flight launched on October 16, 2016 with 2 taikonauts. Shenzhou can carry up to 3 people. China plans to start building another space station, starting with the Tianhe core module, in 2021. They anticipate 4 crewed launches in support of the station by 2023. China is also developing a larger capsule that can carry up to 6 people and launch on a Long March 5B rocket. So far no launch date has been announced. I think the moon rover, Mars rover and space station launches will keep China busy in 2021. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on Shenzhou is 0.

India plans to develop a manned space capsule called Gaganyaan. The capsule will be able to carry 3 people. The first unmanned flight was planned for December 2021. The first manned flight is planned for 2022. Anticipated people to fly in space in 2021 on Gaganyaan is 0.

 Carol and I saw the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction on Sunday night December 20, 2020 at 5:10 PM CST, which is a day before the closest approach on Monday December 21, 2020. Seeing both planets in the same high power view (203 power with my Celestron 8 inch telescope with a 10mm lens) was very cool. I saw 4 of Jupiter moons. On the left (west compared to Jupiter) was Europa and Io and on the right Ganymede and Calisto. There was a star between Ganymede and Calisto that looked like a 5th moon but that is unlikely because the remaining moon are too dim. Analysis on the Internet said the separation between the 2 planets was 8.2 arc minutes, at my time my viewing, which is very close to the minimum occurring on Monday night with 6.3 arc minutes. The full moon by comparison is about 30 arc minutes or one half of a degree. Surprisingly, Saturn which is the dimmer planet, is to the north of Jupiter, so the ecliptic is not a perfect path for planets. It looked like the rings of Saturn are angled at 45 degrees compared to the plane of the moons around Jupiter. It has been a while since I had my telescope out, so I'm glad Carol was there to support me during my frustration with focusing my Celestron. The focusing knob has about 30 turns to it and I'm never sure when a good focus is coming. The crescent moon provided a good object to test it. I was also surprised on how fast the planets were setting in the south west. By 5:30 PM they were setting behind my neighbor's house. The planets will be pretty close for the upcoming week, so I encourage anyone to take a look any near future clear night. Good luck.

email to MASS on Friday May 15, 2020

We are under 12 days to the launch of SpaceX’s DM-2 manned mission to the ISS.  The 2 astronauts went into quarantine yesterday. I haven’t heard anything preventing a launch on the scheduled date of Wednesday May 27, at 3:32 PM. Possibly the biggest unknown is weather. There has to be good weather at the launch pad, the downrange emergency splashdown area and the landing area for the Falcon 9 core stage. I probably won’t publish the zoom meeting # for our “watch party” until I see a good weather prediction during the Launch Readiness Review on Monday afternoon, May 25.

This weekend there will be a couple of rocket launches from Florida. On Saturday, May 16, the US Air Force will launch its spaceplane, the X-37B, for the 6^th time, around 7:24 AM. Because of the secrecy of mission, there never is much information about the mission and the plane can spend up to 2 years in orbit before landing back in Florida.

On Sunday, May 17, SpaceX is scheduled to launch its 8^th batch of 60 Starlink satellites. Launch is scheduled for 2:53 AM. This will bring the number of Starlink satellites up to 480. SpaceX will be using this Falcon 9 rocket for the 5^th time which will tie their record for the most reuses of a booster.

If you get a chance, try the Dragon (DM-2) ISS Docking Simulator. Keith put a link to it on our website, massCosmos.org . Click on the title bar option of “ISS Docking Sim”. I’m only batting 1 for 4 on successful dockings. I usually get to within 5 meters before losing control. Hint: use the keyboard keys (a, s, d and w) for the position controls instead of mouse clicks. Also check out Scott Manley’s youtube tutorial, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp4CTN6-kzQ for additional tips.

Jim

email to MASS on April 24, 2020 titled "MASS update for April 24, 2020

As we are winding down our 6^th week of quarantine, I really thought it would have ended by now. But Carol and I are doing our civic duty and keeping our social distancing. I’ve experienced my first public outing in a face mask in order to get of all things, a case of bourbon. COVID19 has no idea how resolute these baby-boomer’s can be.

SpaceX launched another set of 60 StarLink satellites, Starlink6, on Wednesday, 4/22. They increased their constellation to 420 satellites, landed their 51^st first stage core on a barge, established Falcon 9 as the most launched active US rocket with their 83^rd successful launch. The launch used a rocket for the 4^th time and reused the $6 million fairings. SpaceX recovered their fairings by plucking them out of the ocean. Apparently catching them in the big boat nets is more difficult than anticipated.

I’ve checked a couple of Starlink satellite observation sites and they predict that at 8:56 PM on Saturday, 4/25, numerous satellites should be visible from Chicago. They will appear 11 degrees in the NW, maximize at 41 degree elevation, and then disappear at 37 degrees elevation in the NE. I don’t think the clouds will cooperate, but I thought it was worth sharing. The StarLink6 satellites are brightest and closest to each other just after launch.

It looks like NASA doesn’t want people to head to Florida to watch the SpaceX DM-2 Commercial Crew launch. What a shame, after almost 9 years of waiting for astronauts to launch from US soil, we have to be social distancing. If they successfully launch on May 27, it will be 3246 days since the last shuttle launch on July 8, 2011. But who is counting? It’s hard to put that in perspective. But think of 4 years of high school, plus 4 years of college, plus another year, wow that’s a long time to wait.

The Martian Mole on Insight has performed another 25 strokes and under ideal conditions it would have gone a couple of inches farther into the soil but scientists said it only got another half inch of progress. They will try with “arm pinning” to get the mole to go fully into the ground. And then cover it up with dirt to see if it can penetrate on its own. That update was from March 18 and I haven’t heard any updates yet. With only 15 inches of progress, Dean you have the inside track with your pessimistic depth guess of only 42 inches.

Intuitive Machines (a lunar X Prize company) announced the date of their Falcon9 powered lunar launch as Oct 11, 2021. They will deliver 100 kg of payload for a 14 day mission to the moon’s surface. It is nice to see US companies jumping in to NASA’s support of lunar payloads. Other lunar X Prize companies from Israel and Indian have not been successful with landings. I’m interested to see how they will fare. In a related news item, Masten Space Systems is getting some money to research injecting aluminum into their rocket exhaust to spray the lunar landing area to minimize dust. That’s the kind of innovative I’m looking for from our space program. Let’s not spend it all on SLS.

Ad Astra, Jim

email to MASS on Apr 18 titled "MASS update for Apr 18th"

Finishing up on our 5^th week of quarantine, but things are still moving along in rocket launches. NASA announced today that the SpaceX Commercial Crew launch is now scheduled for Wednesday afternoon on May 27^th. This is good because 3 astronauts just returned Friday morning from the ISS and the US is down to just Chris Cassidy to man the station. I’m sure he would appreciate 2 more people to help change filters and perform science experiments. The SpaceX astronauts might spend 2-3 months aboard the ISS. I’m looking forward to watching them head out to the launch pad in their gull-winged white Teslas.

As far as our third attempt to guess the date for the return of astronauts launched from American soil, Hank, who is new to the group, has the inside track with his guess of May 29 for the docking to ISS. Good luck, Hank. I’ve updated our spreadsheet of guesses on our website, MASScosmos.org.

On April 11, we celebrated the 50^th anniversary of Apollo 13 launch which was labeled as our “most successful” failure. I always felt sorry for our local astronaut, Jim Lovell, who got to circle the moon on two Apollo missions, 8 and 13, but never got to land. We can draw inspiration from Apollo 13, with their “can do” spirit and the quote “failure is not an option”.

Last night, Friday, my wife Carol saw at 8PM, a train of 15, I think, SpaceX Starlink satellites go across the sky. I checked my phone app and 26 Starlink’s will pass close to the bright orange star, Arcturus, tonight from 9:00 PM until 9:40. If skies permit, check it out. Arcturus can be found by following the curve of the Big Dipper’s handle which is usually visible in our light-polluted skies. Last night the satellites where separated by about 10 degrees which can be measured by holding your fist up at an arm’s length distance.

Ad Astra, Jim